Regional Differences in Recovery

Canada’s housing market showed mixed results in November. Several cities, including Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, and parts of the Prairies, saw home resales rise by more than 5% from October, marking a shift from earlier in the season. However, Toronto and Hamilton continued to face declines in both sales and prices, reflecting ongoing economic challenges in southern Ontario.

Price trends remain divided. In Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto, abundant inventory and strong buyer bargaining power have led to falling home prices. In contrast, tighter inventory in places like Quebec and the Prairies has supported stable price growth. This regional divide is likely to persist into 2026, though a broader recovery is expected as economic conditions improve.

In Toronto, market activity remains sluggish, with sales 25% below pre-pandemic levels. The composite MLS Home Price Index has dropped 5-6% from a year ago, and prices are expected to continue falling, particularly for condos. Factors like economic uncertainty, lower immigration, and job market challenges are dampening demand despite interest rate cuts.

Montreal, meanwhile, is experiencing a steady recovery. Home resales rose slightly by 1% from October, with single-detached homes seeing a 5.8% price increase. Tight inventory and moderate buyer demand are driving these gains, and the market is expected to continue improving.

Vancouver saw a modest increase in resales, up 4% from October and November. However, affordability remains a challenge, with prices down 3.9% from a year ago. High inventory levels are expected to continue putting pressure on prices.

Calgary’s market is also picking up, with home resales jumping over 5% despite fewer new listings. Price declines, down 4.6% year-over-year, are making homes more attractive to buyers, while a surge in new construction is keeping inventory high.

Overall, Canada’s housing market remains uneven, with some regions recovering faster than others. As economic conditions improve and interest rates stay lower, a gradual recovery is expected, but affordability challenges will continue to shape market trends in the months ahead.